App name: OOTYULTRA Marathon 60k Race Predictor (Ver 1.0) 2023
This calculator is a valuable asset for both runners and coaches, providing guidance for training and performance prediction for a 60k race. It is the outcome of a research case study conducted by Kannan Sundararajan, also known as Coach Kay, High-Performance Endurance Coach, founder, and race Director of OOTYULTRA & Bison Ultra, as part of his final thesis for the M.Sc in Performance Coaching from Setanta College. Leveraging historical training data and background information from various OOTYULTRA marathon finishers, This research paper is also India’s first scientifically-based race prediction model, offering an easy-to-use tool for the ultrarunning community’s training and race strategy.
Disclaimer
The OOTYULTRA 60K predictor is based on a research study conducted on OOTYULTRA 60k finishers (n=44, 34 male, ten female, 2018-2023 editions) and utilizes a regression equation to estimate potential race finishing time. However, it is essential to acknowledge the limitations of this predictor and understand that individual results may vary. This tool is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered a definitive or absolute performance measure.
OOTYULTRA Marathon 60k Race Predictor (Ver 1.0) 2023
Variables
Recent Full Marathon finish time, Last three months’ average training pace (before OOTYLTRA race day), Age, BMI, Sex and Terrain.
R-Squared Value:
R² is a statistical measure that indicates how much of the variation of a dependent variable is explained by the independent variable(s) in a regression model. In other words, it measures the goodness of fit of a regression model. An R² value of 1.0 would signify a perfect fit, whereas an R² value of 0.0 would indicate that the predictor does not explain any variance in the data.
The OOTYULTRA regression model has an R² value of 0.582, which explains 58.2% of the variation in the dependent variables. This is a relatively good fit, but there is room for improvement.
This means that other factors are not considered in the predictor that may influence individual OOTYULTRA performances (may include actual training variability, race day performance conditions, nutrition, mental conditions etc.)
Individual Variability:
Ultramarathon performance is influenced by numerous factors, including but not limited to age, training history, training methods, foundation fitness level, weather conditions, terrain, nutrition, and overall health. As a result, predictions based solely on the regression equation may not fully capture each runner’s unique attributes and circumstances.
Informed Decision Making:
While the OOTYULTRA 60k predictor can estimate potential performance, it should not be solely relied upon for setting goals or making training decisions. It is strongly recommended that individuals consult with a qualified coach, healthcare professional, or experienced runner to establish realistic objectives and develop a personalized training plan.
Assumption of Risk:
Users of this calculator assume all risks associated with their ultramarathon training and event participation. The predictor’s authors, OOTYULTRA and KaysFIT Academy, are not liable for any injuries, damages, or other adverse outcomes that may arise from using this tool.
Accuracy Updates:
Research and regression equations are subject to ongoing developments and refinements. As new data becomes available and models are improved, the accuracy of the OOTYULTRA 60k predictor may change. Therefore, users are encouraged to regularly check for updates and modifications to the predictor.
Using this OOTYULTRA 60k predictor, you acknowledge that you have read and understood this disclaimer and agree to use the information responsibly and at your own risk.
If you are a past OOTYULTRA 60k finisher and would like to contribute to the research study or have any questions, please write to coachkay@kfita.in.
Last updated: 27-Jul-2023, OOTYULTRA 60k predictor by @Coach Kay, Ver 1.0
